Red Wave Coming? Doomsday for Democrats in Nevada

The US Senate race in Pennsylvania is currently the most prominent in election-related discussions. Republican Mehmet Oz had plugged the gap with Democrat John Fetterman, making it a true tossup, as Fetterman’s health problems have begun to weigh on the electorate.
There’s a second race that is just as important and appears to favor the GOP in a manner that could lead to the Senate being controlled by the GOP. Nevada is where Republican Adam Laxalt faces off against incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro, a Democrat.

Sunday’s polling showed that Republicans are on top across all categories.

Election 101 shows that anyone below 50 percent of the incumbent is in danger. Cortez-Mastro’s current percentage is 43 percent, which means she’s far beyond the point of mere worry. Instead, she is now in doomsday territory. Laxalt is the leader in every poll he has taken part in over the past month and shows no signs of slowing down.

Okay, let’s move on to the real reason you are here, which is the scenarios.

Let’s start with Georgia, as the GOP hopes to win there. Warnock currently leads by 0.7 percent according to the RCP average polls. However, there are some surveys that have very poor track records and that is bolstering this. Marist and Fox News are two examples of polling states that have done very poorly in recent cycles. It’s still tied and, given the fundamentals of a first-term midterm for a party at power, Warnock must be considered a slight underdog.

Pennsylvania is another option, as we discussed in the beginning of this article. Oz is only a few points behind and has gained a lot of ground in the past few weeks. Republicans are in a good position to overcome any polling deficits with Fetterman’s stumble and his repeated message of “New Jersey” waning.

Things look pretty secure for Republicans in Wisconsin as Sen. Ron Johnson, the incumbent, has nailed Democrat Mandela Barnes on crime and his overall radicalism. Arizona is the flip side of this. While Republican Blake Masters is still in power, Mark Kelly, the incumbent Democrat, is still a favourite.

To cut the long story short, even if Republicans win Wisconsin, the GOP must take two of the four seats in Nevada. This is why Laxalt’s success is so significant. Given that Nevada is one of the bluer states, it would be almost impossible for the GOP to win Nevada.

A Laxalt win also opens up the possibility for the GOP to increase the score a little. Imagine that if Oz or Walker win, Republicans will not only hold the Senate but also have breathing space. Given how favorable the GOP’s 2024 map is, it is possible that Republicans could end up with 55-56 seats in just a few years. Although I am getting ahead of myself, things look much more positive than they did in August.


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